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Deep Dive · Macro · US

Millions of American Workers Will Need New Jobs by 2035.

The McKinsey Global Institute estimates the country could add more jobs than automation removes. About 11 million workers would have to change occupations to fill them, and only one in seven has a direct route.

Icarus Asia Research · 30 September 2026 · 17 min read

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Rates & FX · 21 Sept 2026

Japan's Savings Start to Stay Home

The Bank of Japan's September hike was priced, and markets read it as dovish. The effects on global yields, yen carry and risk assets run through slower channels.

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Macro · 12 Sept 2026

The Number Behind the Number

The 7.8 percent print survives arithmetic reconstruction. What it rests on is a set of price assumptions that published data cannot verify.

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From the desk this week

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  • News · Policy · Japan · 2 Oct 2026

    Japan's Prime Minister Calls Her Crackdown on Foreign Residents a Matter of 'Anxiety.'

    Sanae Takaichi's long post on X lists falling visa approvals and a higher bar for permanent residency. It does not say how many of the rejected applicants were breaking the rules.

    PolicyJapan

  • News · Policy · Japan, China, India · 23 Sept 2026

    How China got Trump Talking

    China doesn't just mine rare earths. It makes nearly all the world's rare-earth magnets, and in 2025 it used that chokehold to force its way into trade talks with Washington. U.S. President Donald Trump can't afford to ignore the leverage days weeks away from the end of the one-year deal.

    PolicyJapanChinaIndia

  • News · Macro · US · 22 Sept 2026

    The Bill Before the Boom

    Nine months ago the site at Eastern Creek, a stretch of light-industrial land on Sydney's western fringe, was mostly empty. Brisbane-headquartered NextDC, Australia’s largest listed developer and operator of such…

    MacroUS

  • News · Macro · Japan · 20 Sept 2026

    Japan is Bringing Its Savings Home

    Higher Japanese bond yields let the country's pension funds and insurers earn what they need with less overseas duration. This comes as Japan's Treasury holdings fall every month since April.

    MacroJapan

  • News · Rates & FX · US · 17 Sept 2026

    Fed's Rate Increase Won't Help Outrun Inflation

    Kevin Warsh had a phrase ready when reporters asked him, again, why the Federal Reserve was raising interest rates into an economy he himself described as strong. The central bank, the Fed chair said, was simply…

    Rates & FXUS

  • News · Macro · India · 14 Sept 2026

    India's Missing Trillions Aren't Really Missing

    India's statistical overhaul cut ₹43.9 lakh crore, about $464 billion, from the country's measured economy. None of it was lost production. Why it vanished is also why this quarter's 7.8 percent growth rate cannot be checked from the outside.

    MacroIndia

Deep Dive · Rates & FX · Japan, US

On Borrowed Time: The US–Japan Yen Intervention

The joint intervention pulled USD/JPY back from a 40-year low in four trading days. It left Japan's fiscal overhang, its energy-driven trade deficit and its rate gap with Washington exactly where they were.
164 → 155
USD/JPY, late-July peak to the Aug. 3 intraday low
$52.8bn
Bank of Japan's estimated yen purchases on Thursday, July 30, alone
227.8%
Japan's gross public debt, share of GDP, 2026
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