Deep Dive · Rates & FX · Japan · 21 Sept 2026
The Bank of Japan's September hike was priced, and markets read it as dovish. The effects on global yields, yen carry and risk assets run through slower channels.
News · Rates & FX · US · 17 Sept 2026
Kevin Warsh had a phrase ready when reporters asked him, again, why the Federal Reserve was raising interest rates into an economy he himself described as strong. The central bank, the Fed chair said, was simply…
Deep Dive · Rates & FX · US · 14 Sept 2026
The 10-year Treasury touched its highest yield since 2007 on Monday. Buyers showed up again. A term premium near 0.9 percentage point means the next test will be harder to pass.
News · Rates & FX · US · 14 Sept 2026
For about four minutes on Monday morning, the bond market did something it had not done since the summer of 2007. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note, the benchmark that sets the price of everything from a 30-year…
News · Rates & FX · US · 10 Sept 2026
A $6 billion buyback was supposed to calm the $29 trillion bond market. Instead the 10-year yield closed at its highest level since 2023, a reminder for even the exalted that math has a way of teaching hubris.
News · Rates & FX · US · 10 Sept 2026
A bigger buyback lifted yields for one session in August. Three weeks later a $6 billion operation landed at the low end of expectations, and the 10-year note went on to its highest close since November 2023.
News · Rates & FX · Japan, US · 21 Aug 2026
Sometime this month, the United States Treasury reached into its own history and bought back a bond that almost everyone had forgotten.
Deep Dive · Rates & FX · Japan, US · 4 Aug 2026
The joint intervention pulled USD/JPY back from a 40-year low in four trading days. It left Japan's fiscal overhang, its energy-driven trade deficit and its rate gap with Washington exactly where they were.
News · Rates & FX · Japan, US · 4 Aug 2026
The instructions were four words, scrawled by hand: "To Do: Buy Japanese Yen $5-10 bil."
News · Rates & FX · Japan · 6 Jul 2026
The dollar bought 162.5 yen in early July, within a fraction of a four-decade high hit on July 1. That the yen is this weak is not, by itself, surprising after three years of a strong dollar. What is surprising is that…
Deep Dive · Rates & FX · Japan · 30 Jun 2026
The yen carry trade has rebuilt to a nine-year speculative short. Japan spent $74 billion between April and May trying to stop it. The yen is still at 161.
News · Rates & FX · Japan · 30 Jun 2026
With speculative shorts at a nine-year extreme and the currency at its weakest since 1986, Tokyo's reserves are depleting faster than the carry trade is breaking.
Deep Dive · Rates & FX · Global · 19 Jun 2026
Rising yields across the U.S., Europe, and Japan are no longer a cyclical footnote — they reflect a structural repricing of sovereign supply, term premium, and central-bank retreat that changes the rules for every major asset class.
News · Rates & FX · US · 19 Jun 2026
The 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.198% in May. The Federal Reserve hasn't raised rates since 2023. Inflation is lower than it was two years ago. If your mental model still insists the long end dutifully follows the short…
Deep Dive · Rates & FX · China · 17 Jun 2026
Structural forces behind the renminbi's controlled appreciation — China's $1.189 trillion surplus anchor, regime-sensitive volatility, and the corporate hedging reckoning now forcing a decade of complacency into reverse.
