News · Policy · China, US · 9 Jul 2026
The International Monetary Fund cut its global growth forecast this week, and the reasoning was almost more revealing than the number itself. The fund said Wednesday it was modestly downgrading its outlook for the world…
News · Ideas · US · 3 Jul 2026
Andrew Mellon cut taxes, raised tariffs, and restructured sovereign debt. His grandson just spent half a billion dollars electing an administration doing the same thing.
Deep Dive · Credit · US · 23 Jun 2026
Goldman Sachs is building total return swaps on AI-exposed corporate loans. The product isn't ready. The demand is. Here's what the structure does, what it doesn't do, and what happens when it goes live at scale.
News · Rates & FX · US · 19 Jun 2026
The 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.198% in May. The Federal Reserve hasn't raised rates since 2023. Inflation is lower than it was two years ago. If your mental model still insists the long end dutifully follows the short…
News · Ideas · US · 16 Jun 2026
The new Fed Chair's case for lower interest rates rests on a productivity story that hasn't materialized yet -- and new evidence suggests the A.I. buildout is already pushing prices higher.
News · Policy · US · 15 Jun 2026
A deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz may stop the bleeding. Recovering from a billion barrels of lost supply is another matter.
News · Macro · Japan, US · 10 Jun 2026
When the Bank of Japan's policy board sits down next Monday, it will be deciding whether to raise its benchmark rate by a quarter point, to 1.00%. That sounds modest. Its impact isn't.
News · Markets · US · 9 Jun 2026
Bank of America and Citigroup say their bear-market checklists have hit levels not seen since the dot-com era and the 2008 financial crisis. The S&P 500 closed near a record on Monday.
Deep Dive · Markets · US · 8 Jun 2026
A sum-of-the-parts valuation of SpaceX ahead of its expected IPO, testing whether a $1.75 trillion price tag can survive contact with financial gravity.
News · Policy · US · 5 Jun 2026
When Congress passed the Social Security Act in 1935, it promised a safety net for American workers but it also quietly excluded two of the largest categories of Black employment: domestic workers and agricultural…
News · Macro · US · 3 Jun 2026
The new Fed Chair's Shift to Trimmed-Mean PCE Could Reshape Monetary Policy, But Markets Are Already Skeptical
News · Macro · US · 3 Jun 2026
How the Fed's switch to trimmed-mean PCE could reshape monetary policy, and where it breaks down.
News · Rates & FX · US · 2 Jun 2026
Kevin Warsh wants to change how the Fed measures prices. Critics say he is choosing the gauge that happens to justify cutting rates.
News · Policy · US · 28 May 2026
The New York Fed survey finds nearly 1 in 5 low-income households can't afford enough to eat -- while consumer optimism among the food-insecure has collapsed to record lows, even as headline economic data stays broadly…
News · Rates & FX · Japan, US · 27 May 2026
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi may have bought time by announcing extra spending to tide over high prices. But her willingness to spend is being closely watched by investors around the world as it signals danger…
