Icarus Asia Research
Research and commentary by Icarus Asia Research, published on Asian Value Investor.
Deep Dive · Macro · Global · 16 Jun 2026
Kevin Warsh's case for lower rates rests on a productivity story that hasn't materialized — and new evidence suggests the AI buildout is already pushing prices higher.
News · Ideas · US · 16 Jun 2026
The new Fed Chair's case for lower interest rates rests on a productivity story that hasn't materialized yet -- and new evidence suggests the A.I. buildout is already pushing prices higher.
News · Policy · US · 15 Jun 2026
A deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz may stop the bleeding. Recovering from a billion barrels of lost supply is another matter.
Deep Dive · Ideas · Global · 14 Jun 2026
Enterprises spent record sums on AI in 2025. Most have little to show for it. The bottleneck is not the technology — it is whether employees feel safe enough to actually use it.
News · Ideas · Global · 14 Jun 2026
A slick boardroom presentation. The rollout of AI across the organization. Profit misses estimates? AI will improve productivity in the next quarter.
Deep Dive · Rates & FX · Japan · 11 Jun 2026
The Ministry of Finance spent a record ¥11.7 trillion buying yen in April and May. The Bank of Japan couldn't raise rates fast enough to matter. So the MoF bought time.
News · Rates & FX · Japan · 11 Jun 2026
The 2026 record-breaking intervention has laid bare the limits of Japan’s defensive economic strategy. Caught between a weak yen that fuels inflation and a precarious debt load that prevents aggressive rate hikes, Tokyo is increasingly relying on a series of tactical strikes--and an ever-growing list of non-rate tools--to maintain a fragile, managed equilibrium.
Deep Dive · Rates & FX · Japan · 10 Jun 2026
Why the Bank of Japan's next rate move matters more for global portfolios than anything the Fed, ECB, or PBoC will do in 2026 — and how to position before it lands.
News · Macro · Japan, US · 10 Jun 2026
When the Bank of Japan's policy board sits down next Monday, it will be deciding whether to raise its benchmark rate by a quarter point, to 1.00%. That sounds modest. Its impact isn't.
Deep Dive · Markets · Global · 9 Jun 2026
The Shiller CAPE and Buffett Indicator sit at or near all-time highs simultaneously. The market can stay expensive for a while. The margin for error says it can't stay wrong for long.
News · Markets · US · 9 Jun 2026
Bank of America and Citigroup say their bear-market checklists have hit levels not seen since the dot-com era and the 2008 financial crisis. The S&P 500 closed near a record on Monday.
Deep Dive · Markets · US · 8 Jun 2026
A sum-of-the-parts valuation of SpaceX ahead of its expected IPO, testing whether a $1.75 trillion price tag can survive contact with financial gravity.
News · Markets · Global · 8 Jun 2026
SpaceX is preparing to debut at a staggering $1.75 trillion valuation — the largest IPO in U.S. history. The company has genuine competitive advantages and an impressive track record, but at 94 times revenue, the asking price leaves almost no margin for error. Investors should look past the mythology and focus on four underappreciated risks: declining Starlink ARPU, Starship execution delays, the growing drag from xAI losses, and Musk’s ironclad governance structure that leaves little room for minority shareholders.
News · Ideas · Global · 6 Jun 2026
In a report released this week, the Anthropic Institute disclosed internal data showing how quickly its artificial intelligence is learning to improve itself. That raises an important question. What happens when AI systems start designing their own successors?
News · Policy · US · 5 Jun 2026
When Congress passed the Social Security Act in 1935, it promised a safety net for American workers but it also quietly excluded two of the largest categories of Black employment: domestic workers and agricultural…
